As geeky engineer types, we built technology to solve the complexity of survivor pool pick optimization. Survivor Pick Popularity: 10% (#2) The recency bias bells are ringing for this matchup.

Running back Leonard Fournette had a strong showing for the Bucs, recording 12 carries for 103 yards and two touchdowns. Wide receiver Mike Evans also had a big day, hauling in seven passes for 104 yards and a score.

The public is currently on the Browns at an 85% rate, as the ninth-highest pick on the slate. I’ll update the embedded table featuring my ATS confidence ratings throughout the week, but your contest may use different lines, so I’ve also created this downloadable spreadsheet so you can calculate ratings specific to your pool. Quarterback Drew Lock suffered a shoulder injury and will miss Sunday's game against Tampa Bay, while wide receiver Courtland Sutton tore his ACL and is out for the season. The best Week 3 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and number of weeks remaining. Aug 6, 2015; Tampa Bay, FL, USA; Tampa Bay Buccaneers wide receiver Mike Evans (13) catches the ball as he works out during training camp at One Buc Place. Football Pick’em Pool Strategy. Go to SportsLine to see them. According to TeamRankings, here are the top five teams in future value entering this week for a 100-entry standard rules pool: Note: The numbers in parentheses are a proprietary rating of future value found in the TeamRankings Data Grid, which is also impacted by factors such as pool size. Like us on Facebook to see similar stories, Movie theaters in New York outside NYC can reopen October 23, with limits, Where to find good, cheap pasta in every state. Week 3 will feature star-studded quarterback matchups. ESPN NFL writer Vaughn McClure died this week at age 48. After a fairly below average Week 1, I bounced back for a solid 11-5 mark in straight up pick’em last week. Our NFL Survivor Picks product does all the data collection and number crunching necessary to identify the best weekly picks for many popular types of survivor pools. See how for free: 2020 NFL Week 3 features several favorites that the public is picking at a lower rate than their chance to win. Trendy upset picks like Las Vegas mean less reward for still taking on a lot of risk, and that’s a situation you want to avoid. Show full articles without "Continue Reading" button for {0} hours. The 49ers, Steelers, Buccaneers, Bills and Browns all put up winning performances, cashing in for those who rolled with them in Week 2. Meanwhile, the public is only picking the Ravens 59% of the time, providing a little sweetener for sticking with the favorite here. It took three weeks this year, but the public finally has its Obvious Survivor Pick. The Denver Broncos have made several roster moves ahead of their game against the New England Patriots, including releasing quarterback Blake Bortles. The only week where the Cardinals project to be favored by more than they are favored in Week 3 is a Week 9 matchup against Miami at home. Here are the five safest teams this week, according to the TeamRankings Data Grid model (chances to win in parentheses): Diversifying your survivor picks from the crowd is an advantageous strategy, as the pool winnings can increase significantly if your pick hits and another popular pick loses. A 45% pick popularity is typically a great opportunity to avoid the “obvious” pick and root for an upset that knocks out nearly half of your survivor pool. Try it out for free: Free Trial for Survivor, Pick’em, and Betting Picks. Who will win and by how much. Keep in mind that we are not saying you should make all of the picks below – the upset picks especially. Go to SportsLine to see them . Pick'em Pool Breakdown Before I get into the picks, note I’m not suggesting you should make all of the picks listed below. I also got 10-6 against the spread, but was abysmal 6-10 picking the over/under in those games. sms. If you want to see the latest numbers, our product updates multiple times per day. Indy currently boasts 82+% odds to win by both Vegas and the TeamRankings model. Baltimore gets this game at home, which helps make them a favorite of 3.5 points in the betting markets, with roughly 63% win odds. It looks like nothing was found at this location. The public is only taking the Ravens 59% of the time, adding to the value of going with the favorite this week. Go to SportsLine to see them. If you’re going to take a gamble on an underdog, you need to make sure that the potential reward if you get it right – that is, how much your odds to win your pool will increase – is big. Editor's Note: Try TeamRankings with a Week 3 free trial. Because of their relative safety, though, the Colts still have solid expected value this week despite their sky-high popularity. Primetime game results can provide the fuel for a value pick opportunity the next week if the public reacts strongly, as this game fits the bill. The Chargers are a very similar choice to the Cardinals in many ways. Should you completely avoid these star-studded quarterback battles when locking in your Week 3 NFL confidence pool picks? Figuring out the best picks for your NFL survivor pool each week isn’t easy. The model projects that the injuries will be too much to overcome for Denver as backup quarterback Jeff Driskel struggles to put up points, resulting in the Buccaneers winning outright in almost 70 percent of simulations. send. The Saints went 6-0 when Brees was out injured last year and still have plenty of weapons. The picks below may not be significantly underrated by the public, but compared to other favorites this week, they are a relative bargain in terms of pick popularity. We’ve developed a product that algorithmically optimizes your weekly NFL pick’em pool picks based on many different strategy dynamics. One of the top Week 3 NFL pick'em predictions from the model: The Buccaneers earn a comfortable victory on the road against the 0-2 Denver Broncos. tweet. Now the model has simulated the entire Week 3, 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. Bills QB Josh Allen, though, has also been playing well through two weeks as the Bills racked up 58 points against the Jets and Dolphins. (Our Football Pick’em Picks product customizes recommended weekly picks for you based on all those factors.). That QB shuffling has bumped up Tampa Bay’s win odds in this game, so the Bucs also join the next-safest tier of teams behind the Colts. Week 3 NFL Pick ‘Em Rankings. Copyright © Intense Industries, LLC. There was redemption for both the Colts and Browns, who burned many pickers in Week 1. The Ravens are no slouches themselves, though, following up last year’s 14-2 record with a 2-0 start where they outscored the Browns and Texans by 49 combined points. The Mile High Report staff competes for the best record in every category. Put another way, the public is picking a Raiders upset more than twice as often as other similar long shots this week. Survivor Pick Popularity: 6% (#5) Are you looking to contact Customer Support about a subscription or account related question? A Raiders upset may be popular in pools this week which means less reward for the risk, so in this case, it may be better to stick with the near-touchdown favorite. So who should you pick in every Week 3 NFL game? SC rejects PIL seeking dismissal of Maharashtra govt | India News, Farmers’ welfare UP government’s top priority: Yogi Adityanath | India News, SpiceJet operates 1,000 flights to repatriate 1.75 lakh passengers | India News, Nirbhaya Trust Gen Secy accuses Cong of ignoring calls to not give tickets to accused of crimes against women | India News, NSG has trained Sri Lankan PM’s security personnel in close protection: Force chief | India News. The Saints are coming off a road loss at Las Vegas on Monday Night. That will be a solid advantage later on. Broncos make several roster moves; released Blake Bortles. Survivor Pick Popularity: 45% (#1) The best Week 3 picks for your NFL pick’em or confidence pool depend on strategy factors such as its size, rules, and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and the number of weeks left in the pool. Disclosures. To see our recommended picks for every game for your pool, we invite you to try it out: Free Trial for Pick’em, Survivor, and Betting Picks, Pool Picks From TeamRankings: And our subscriber picks had a 100% survival rate in survivor pools despite avoiding valuable teams like the Chiefs and 49ers in favor of more expendable picks like the Cardinals, Bucs, and Browns. Microsoft may earn an Affiliate Commission if you purchase something through recommended links in this article. Now the model has simulated the entire Week 3, 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick’em plays. Last week, San Francisco was the most popular choice while playing the Jets, and nothing Gang Green did has discouraged survivor players from returning to the anti-Jets well. More From TeamRankings: Pick'em | Survivor.

The Denver Broncos will host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers this week and while I feel like there could be an upset in the cards this week, I just don’t know if this team quite knows how to win those close games. Not to mention that a late-week shift in a team’s win odds or pick popularity always threatens to derail your initial conclusions. Over the past three seasons, our subscribers have won over three times the prize money as expected in survivor pools.
Our solution to winning more pick’em pools was to build technology to do all the heavy lifting.

When compared to other non-Colts options, the Cardinals also don’t stand out in terms of win odds, as five other less popular survivor picks are favored by a similar (or greater) amount. After a fairly below average Week 1, I bounced back for a solid 11-5 mark in straight up pick’em last week. Everything else being equal, you want to pick the team with the best likelihood of making it through. The best Week 3 picks for your NFL pool depend on strategy factors such as your pool’s size, rules and prize structure, plus situational factors like your current place in the standings and number of weeks remaining. Denver, though, has lost starting QB Drew Lock to a shoulder injury, and will likely start Jeff Driskel in this game; the Broncos also signed Blake Bortles this week. That future value, though, isn’t high enough that it would singlehandedly disqualify LAC as a pick to consider this week. With the game in Buffalo, the Bills opened as a 2-point favorite, and have 60% win odds according to our projections.

Washington is on the road for the second week in a row, while the Browns are extra rested coming off a Thursday night victory.
Now the model has simulated the entire Week 3, 2020 NFL schedule 10,000 times and generated its optimal NFL pick'em plays. The Packers have been a public darling through the first two weeks, and now go on the road after blowing out the Lions. The Browns don’t have a single future week in the 2020 season where we currently project them with more than 60% win odds. What Arizona does have going for it is only moderate future value.

That means you can get the favorite at a slight underdog or toss-up price. List of NFL Weekly Football Games. Granted, Jacksonville has shown signs of life early on, winning a close game against the Colts in a serious upset and losing a close one against the Titans last week.

I’d like to see my straight up pick’em to hover around 11 games. The model also made the call on every other Week 3 game and has strong picks for potentially close games like Bills vs. Rams and Vikings vs. Titans. Get the latest NFL Week 3 picks from CBS Sports. Absolutely. Top Week 3 NFL office pool predictions email. NFL Picks: Office pool pick'em - Week 3 NFL Betting Odds and Lines.

In addition, Denver enters Sunday's showdown having won just one of its last five games against teams from the NFC.

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